Op4G Blog

You’re Fired! How Pollsters Failed in the 2016 Election and the Lessons for Survey Design

Posted by Meghan Sullivan on January 24, 2017

Less than a week ago, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. It was an unexpected outcome for those who followed polls in 2016. Even on the eve of the election, the New York Times poll predicted that Clinton had an 84% chance of winning. Pollster Nate Silver and the Princeton Election Consortium calculated a 71% chance and 95-99% chance, respectively. So why did “serious predictors completely misjudge Trump’s chances of victory”? Experts point to several likely factors, including:

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Topics: Election, Polls, Market Research, Politics, Trump, Surveys